Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ilbirs vs Nur-Batken — Premier League 2019

Ilbirs
Ilbirs
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nur-Batken
Nur-Batken
7/1/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Stadion im. Dolena Omurzakova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ilbirs42%
×Draw25%
Nur-Batken34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilbirs
1.55
Nur-Batken
1.37

Ilbirs creates 13% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ilbirs
1.18
Nur-Batken
1.15

allows per match

Ilbirs
1.59
Nur-Batken
1.92

finishing

Ilbirs+0.00on par
Nur-Batken+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilbirs ↓

Nur-Batken →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ilbirs or draw
66%
Ilbirs or Nur-Batken
75%
Draw or Nur-Batken
58%

Winning margin

Ilbirs wins by 2+
21%
Nur-Batken wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ilbirs 1+ goals
79%
Ilbirs 2+ goals
46%
Ilbirs 3+ goals
20%
Nur-Batken 1+ goals
75%
Nur-Batken 2+ goals
40%
Nur-Batken 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Ilbirs (draw refunded)
55%
Nur-Batken (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilbirs at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.59 · 94 matches

Nur-Batken away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilbirs attack 1.18 + Nur-Batken defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.55

Nur-Batken attack 1.15 + Ilbirs defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ilbirs scores more
42%
level
25%
Nur-Batken scores more
34%

Ilbirs at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ilbirs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ilbirs vs Nur-Batken

Ilbirs and Nur-Batken drew 1-1 in Premier League on July 1, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion im. Dolena Omurzakova in Bishkek.