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Ilbirs vs Kaganat — Premier League 2019

Ilbirs
Ilbirs
FT
0 – 1
Kaganat
Kaganat
10/1/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Stadion MIS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ilbirs38%
×Draw25%
Kaganat37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilbirs
1.44
Kaganat
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 35 away

creates per match

Ilbirs
1.18
Kaganat
1.23

allows per match

Ilbirs
1.59
Kaganat
1.71

finishing

Ilbirs+0.00on par
Kaganat+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilbirs ↓

Kaganat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ilbirs or draw
63%
Ilbirs or Kaganat
75%
Draw or Kaganat
62%

Winning margin

Ilbirs wins by 2+
18%
Kaganat wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ilbirs 1+ goals
76%
Ilbirs 2+ goals
42%
Ilbirs 3+ goals
18%
Kaganat 1+ goals
76%
Kaganat 2+ goals
41%
Kaganat 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Ilbirs (draw refunded)
51%
Kaganat (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilbirs at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.59 · 94 matches

Kaganat away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.71 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilbirs attack 1.18 + Kaganat defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.44

Kaganat attack 1.23 + Ilbirs defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ilbirs scores more
38%
level
25%
Kaganat scores more
37%

Ilbirs at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ilbirs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ilbirs vs Kaganat

Kaganat beat Ilbirs 1-0 in Premier League on October 1, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion MIS in Kant.