Ikorodu City 1–1 Remo Stars: Result & Stats | NPFL

Ikorodu City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Remo Stars

12/15/2024

NPFL · Round 17Mobolaji Johnson Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ikorodu City61%

×Draw23%

Remo Stars16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ikorodu CityExpected goals in this matchRemo Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.74

Ikorodu City

1.73

Remo Stars

0.74

Ikorodu City creates 134% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 99 away

2.03

creates per match

0.78

0.71

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Ikorodu City

2.03

Remo Stars

0.78

allows per match

Ikorodu City

0.71

Remo Stars

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ikorodu City+0.00on par

Remo Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ikorodu City ↓

Remo Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ikorodu City or draw

84%

Ikorodu City or Remo Stars

77%

Draw or Remo Stars

39%

Winning margin

Ikorodu City wins by 2+

35%

Remo Stars wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Ikorodu City 1+ goals

82%

Ikorodu City 2+ goals

52%

Ikorodu City 3+ goals

25%

Remo Stars 1+ goals

52%

Remo Stars 2+ goals

17%

Remo Stars 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Ikorodu City (draw refunded)

80%

Remo Stars (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ikorodu City at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

Remo Stars away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ikorodu City attack 2.03 + Remo Stars defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.73

Remo Stars attack 0.78 + Ikorodu City defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ikorodu City scores more

61%

level

23%

Remo Stars scores more

16%

Ikorodu City at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ikorodu City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff