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Ikorodu City vs Lobi Stars — NPFL 2019

Ikorodu City
Ikorodu City
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Lobi Stars
Lobi Stars
10/21/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 8Mobolaji Johnson Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ikorodu City65%
×Draw23%
Lobi Stars13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ikorodu City
1.75
Lobi Stars
0.62

Ikorodu City creates 182% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 113 away

creates per match

Ikorodu City
2.03
Lobi Stars
0.53

allows per match

Ikorodu City
0.71
Lobi Stars
1.48

finishing

Ikorodu City+0.00on par
Lobi Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ikorodu City ↓

Lobi Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ikorodu City or draw
87%
Ikorodu City or Lobi Stars
77%
Draw or Lobi Stars
35%

Winning margin

Ikorodu City wins by 2+
38%
Lobi Stars wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ikorodu City 1+ goals
83%
Ikorodu City 2+ goals
52%
Ikorodu City 3+ goals
25%
Lobi Stars 1+ goals
46%
Lobi Stars 2+ goals
13%
Lobi Stars 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ikorodu City (draw refunded)
84%
Lobi Stars (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ikorodu City at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

Lobi Stars away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.48 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ikorodu City attack 2.03 + Lobi Stars defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.75

Lobi Stars attack 0.53 + Ikorodu City defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Ikorodu City scores more
65%
level
23%
Lobi Stars scores more
13%

Ikorodu City at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Ikorodu City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Ikorodu City 4–2 Lobi Stars

Ikorodu City beat Lobi Stars 4-2 in NPFL on October 21, 2024.

The match was played at Mobolaji Johnson Arena in Lagos.