Ikorodu City 2–0 Heartland: Result & Stats | NPFL

Ikorodu City

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Heartland

3/2/2025

NPFL · Round 27Mobolaji Johnson Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ikorodu City65%

×Draw22%

Heartland13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ikorodu CityExpected goals in this matchHeartland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.62

Ikorodu City

1.77

Heartland

0.62

Ikorodu City creates 185% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 100 away

2.03

creates per match

0.53

0.71

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Ikorodu City

2.03

Heartland

0.53

allows per match

Ikorodu City

0.71

Heartland

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ikorodu City+0.00on par

Heartland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ikorodu City ↓

Heartland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ikorodu City or draw

87%

Ikorodu City or Heartland

78%

Draw or Heartland

35%

Winning margin

Ikorodu City wins by 2+

38%

Heartland wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Ikorodu City 1+ goals

83%

Ikorodu City 2+ goals

53%

Ikorodu City 3+ goals

26%

Heartland 1+ goals

46%

Heartland 2+ goals

13%

Heartland 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Ikorodu City (draw refunded)

84%

Heartland (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ikorodu City at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

Heartland away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.52 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ikorodu City attack 2.03 + Heartland defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.77

Heartland attack 0.53 + Ikorodu City defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Ikorodu City scores more

65%

level

22%

Heartland scores more

13%

Ikorodu City at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Ikorodu City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff