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Ikorodu City vs El Kanemi Warriors — NPFL 2019

Ikorodu City
Ikorodu City
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
El Kanemi Warriors
El Kanemi Warriors
8/31/2025NPFLNPFL · Round 2Mobolaji Johnson Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ikorodu City70%
×Draw20%
El Kanemi Warriors10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ikorodu City
1.93
El Kanemi Warriors
0.57

Ikorodu City creates 239% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 59 away

creates per match

Ikorodu City
2.03
El Kanemi Warriors
0.44

allows per match

Ikorodu City
0.71
El Kanemi Warriors
1.83

finishing

Ikorodu City+0.00on par
El Kanemi Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ikorodu City ↓

El Kanemi Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–19%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ikorodu City or draw
90%
Ikorodu City or El Kanemi Warriors
80%
Draw or El Kanemi Warriors
30%

Winning margin

Ikorodu City wins by 2+
43%
El Kanemi Warriors wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Ikorodu City 1+ goals
85%
Ikorodu City 2+ goals
57%
Ikorodu City 3+ goals
30%
El Kanemi Warriors 1+ goals
43%
El Kanemi Warriors 2+ goals
11%
El Kanemi Warriors 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Ikorodu City (draw refunded)
87%
El Kanemi Warriors (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ikorodu City at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

El Kanemi Warriors away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.83 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ikorodu City attack 2.03 + El Kanemi Warriors defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.93

El Kanemi Warriors attack 0.44 + Ikorodu City defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Ikorodu City scores more
70%
level
20%
El Kanemi Warriors scores more
10%

Ikorodu City at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Ikorodu City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
45+1'
48'
89'
90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ikorodu City 0 – 0 El Kanemi Warriors

Ikorodu City and El Kanemi Warriors drew 0-0 in NPFL on August 31, 2025.

The match was played at Mobolaji Johnson Arena in Lagos.