Ikorodu City 1–0 Bendel Insurance: Result & Stats

Ikorodu City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bendel Insurance

10/12/2025

NPFL · Round 8Mobolaji Johnson Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ikorodu City60%

×Draw25%

Bendel Insurance15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ikorodu CityExpected goals in this matchBendel Insurance

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.66

Ikorodu City

1.58

Bendel Insurance

0.66

Ikorodu City creates 139% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 79 away

2.03

creates per match

0.61

0.71

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Ikorodu City

2.03

Bendel Insurance

0.61

allows per match

Ikorodu City

0.71

Bendel Insurance

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ikorodu City+0.00on par

Bendel Insurance+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ikorodu City ↓

Bendel Insurance →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ikorodu City or draw

85%

Ikorodu City or Bendel Insurance

75%

Draw or Bendel Insurance

40%

Winning margin

Ikorodu City wins by 2+

32%

Bendel Insurance wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Ikorodu City 1+ goals

79%

Ikorodu City 2+ goals

47%

Ikorodu City 3+ goals

21%

Bendel Insurance 1+ goals

48%

Bendel Insurance 2+ goals

14%

Bendel Insurance 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Ikorodu City (draw refunded)

79%

Bendel Insurance (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ikorodu City at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

Bendel Insurance away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ikorodu City attack 2.03 + Bendel Insurance defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.58

Bendel Insurance attack 0.61 + Ikorodu City defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ikorodu City scores more

60%

level

25%

Bendel Insurance scores more

15%

Ikorodu City at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ikorodu City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff