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Ikorodu City vs Akwa United — NPFL 2019

Ikorodu City
Ikorodu City
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Akwa United
Akwa United
12/1/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 15Mobolaji Johnson Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ikorodu City60%
×Draw24%
Akwa United15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ikorodu City
1.65
Akwa United
0.69

Ikorodu City creates 139% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 111 away

creates per match

Ikorodu City
2.03
Akwa United
0.66

allows per match

Ikorodu City
0.71
Akwa United
1.28

finishing

Ikorodu City+0.00on par
Akwa United+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ikorodu City ↓

Akwa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ikorodu City or draw
85%
Ikorodu City or Akwa United
76%
Draw or Akwa United
40%

Winning margin

Ikorodu City wins by 2+
34%
Akwa United wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ikorodu City 1+ goals
81%
Ikorodu City 2+ goals
49%
Ikorodu City 3+ goals
23%
Akwa United 1+ goals
50%
Akwa United 2+ goals
15%
Akwa United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ikorodu City (draw refunded)
80%
Akwa United (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ikorodu City at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

Akwa United away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.28 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ikorodu City attack 2.03 + Akwa United defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.65

Akwa United attack 0.66 + Ikorodu City defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ikorodu City scores more
60%
level
24%
Akwa United scores more
15%

Ikorodu City at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ikorodu City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ikorodu City vs Akwa United

Ikorodu City beat Akwa United 4-1 in NPFL on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at Mobolaji Johnson Arena in Lagos.