IK Ilmajoki 0–6 Kiisto: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

IK Ilmajoki

0 – 6

Kiisto

2/26/2022

Suomen Cup · 1st RoundWallsport Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

IK Ilmajoki1%

×Draw2%

Kiisto97%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IK IlmajokiExpected goals in this matchKiisto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

7.33

IK Ilmajoki

1.00

Kiisto

7.33

Kiisto creates 633% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

7.00

7.67

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

IK Ilmajoki

1.00

Kiisto

7.00

allows per match

IK Ilmajoki

7.67

Kiisto

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IK Ilmajoki+0.00on par

Kiisto+0.00on par

Total goals

Over97
Under3

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IK Ilmajoki ↓

Kiisto →

0–00%

0–10%

0–22%

0–34%

0–47%

1–00%

1–10%

1–22%

1–34%

1–47%

2–00%

2–10%

2–21%

2–32%

2–44%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (7%) · grid covers 36% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

99%1%2.5

97%3%3.5

92%8%4.5

80%20%

Double chance

IK Ilmajoki or draw

IK Ilmajoki or Kiisto

98%

Draw or Kiisto

99%

Winning margin

IK Ilmajoki wins by 2+

Kiisto wins by 2+

91%

Team goals

IK Ilmajoki 1+ goals

63%

IK Ilmajoki 2+ goals

26%

IK Ilmajoki 3+ goals

Kiisto 1+ goals

100%

Kiisto 2+ goals

99%

Kiisto 3+ goals

94%

Draw no bet

IK Ilmajoki (draw refunded)

Kiisto (draw refunded)

99%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

IK Ilmajoki at home — creates 1.00, concedes 7.67 · 3 matches

Kiisto away — creates 7.00, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

IK Ilmajoki attack 1.00 + Kiisto defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Kiisto attack 7.00 + IK Ilmajoki defence 7.67 → ÷2 → 7.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 97%?"

IK Ilmajoki scores more

level

Kiisto scores more

97%

Kiisto at 97% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 97% does not mean "Kiisto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff