IK Frej 1–1 Vasteras SK FK: Result & Stats

IK Frej

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Vasteras SK FK

8/4/2019

Superettan · Round 18Vikingavallen (Täby)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

IK Frej33%

×Draw24%

Vasteras SK FK43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IK FrejExpected goals in this matchVasteras SK FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.62

IK Frej

1.39

Vasteras SK FK

1.62

Vasteras SK FK creates 17% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 90 away

1.40

creates per match

1.36

1.87

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

IK Frej

1.40

Vasteras SK FK

1.36

allows per match

IK Frej

1.87

Vasteras SK FK

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IK Frej+0.00on par

Vasteras SK FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IK Frej ↓

Vasteras SK FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

IK Frej or draw

57%

IK Frej or Vasteras SK FK

76%

Draw or Vasteras SK FK

67%

Winning margin

IK Frej wins by 2+

15%

Vasteras SK FK wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

IK Frej 1+ goals

75%

IK Frej 2+ goals

40%

IK Frej 3+ goals

16%

Vasteras SK FK 1+ goals

80%

Vasteras SK FK 2+ goals

48%

Vasteras SK FK 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

IK Frej (draw refunded)

43%

Vasteras SK FK (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IK Frej at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

Vasteras SK FK away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.38 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IK Frej attack 1.40 + Vasteras SK FK defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.39

Vasteras SK FK attack 1.36 + IK Frej defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

IK Frej scores more

33%

level

24%

Vasteras SK FK scores more

43%

Vasteras SK FK at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vasteras SK FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff