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IK Frej vs Vasalund — Ettan - Norra 2019

IK Frej
IK Frej
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Vasalund
Vasalund
9/12/2020Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 17Vikingavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

IK Frej39%
×Draw23%
Vasalund38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IK Frej
1.74
Vasalund
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 98 away

creates per match

IK Frej
1.87
Vasalund
1.94

allows per match

IK Frej
1.47
Vasalund
1.61

finishing

IK Frej+0.00on par
Vasalund+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IK Frej ↓

Vasalund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

IK Frej or draw
62%
IK Frej or Vasalund
77%
Draw or Vasalund
61%

Winning margin

IK Frej wins by 2+
20%
Vasalund wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

IK Frej 1+ goals
82%
IK Frej 2+ goals
52%
IK Frej 3+ goals
25%
Vasalund 1+ goals
82%
Vasalund 2+ goals
51%
Vasalund 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

IK Frej (draw refunded)
51%
Vasalund (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IK Frej at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Vasalund away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.61 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IK Frej attack 1.87 + Vasalund defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.74

Vasalund attack 1.94 + IK Frej defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

IK Frej scores more
39%
level
23%
Vasalund scores more
38%

IK Frej at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "IK Frej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IK Frej vs Vasalund

Vasalund beat IK Frej 4-1 in Ettan - Norra on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at Vikingavallen in Täby.