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IK Frej vs Osters IF — Superettan 2018

IK Frej
IK Frej
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Osters IF
Osters IF
6/2/2018SuperettanSuperettan · Round 11Vikingavallen (Täby)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

IK Frej33%
×Draw24%
Osters IF43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IK Frej
1.38
Osters IF
1.61

Osters IF creates 17% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 112 away

creates per match

IK Frej
1.40
Osters IF
1.35

allows per match

IK Frej
1.87
Osters IF
1.36

finishing

IK Frej+0.00on par
Osters IF+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IK Frej ↓

Osters IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

IK Frej or draw
57%
IK Frej or Osters IF
76%
Draw or Osters IF
67%

Winning margin

IK Frej wins by 2+
15%
Osters IF wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

IK Frej 1+ goals
75%
IK Frej 2+ goals
40%
IK Frej 3+ goals
16%
Osters IF 1+ goals
80%
Osters IF 2+ goals
48%
Osters IF 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

IK Frej (draw refunded)
43%
Osters IF (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IK Frej at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

Osters IF away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.36 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IK Frej attack 1.40 + Osters IF defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.38

Osters IF attack 1.35 + IK Frej defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

IK Frej scores more
33%
level
24%
Osters IF scores more
43%

Osters IF at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Osters IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: IK Frej 3–2 Osters IF

IK Frej beat Osters IF 3-2 in Superettan on June 2, 2018.

The match was played at Vikingavallen (Täby).