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IK Frej vs Norrby IF — Superettan 2018

IK Frej
IK Frej
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Norrby IF
Norrby IF
10/25/2019SuperettanSuperettan · Round 29Vikingavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

IK Frej37%
×Draw24%
Norrby IF38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IK Frej
1.48
Norrby IF
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 84 away

creates per match

IK Frej
1.40
Norrby IF
1.12

allows per match

IK Frej
1.87
Norrby IF
1.56

finishing

IK Frej+0.00on par
Norrby IF+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IK Frej ↓

Norrby IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

IK Frej or draw
62%
IK Frej or Norrby IF
76%
Draw or Norrby IF
63%

Winning margin

IK Frej wins by 2+
18%
Norrby IF wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

IK Frej 1+ goals
77%
IK Frej 2+ goals
43%
IK Frej 3+ goals
19%
Norrby IF 1+ goals
78%
Norrby IF 2+ goals
44%
Norrby IF 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

IK Frej (draw refunded)
49%
Norrby IF (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IK Frej at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

Norrby IF away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.56 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IK Frej attack 1.40 + Norrby IF defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.48

Norrby IF attack 1.12 + IK Frej defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

IK Frej scores more
37%
level
24%
Norrby IF scores more
38%

Norrby IF at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Norrby IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IK Frej vs Norrby IF

IK Frej beat Norrby IF 1-0 in Superettan on October 25, 2019.

The match was played at Vikingavallen.