IK Frej 1–2 Mjallby AIF: Result & Stats

IK Frej

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Mjallby AIF

7/13/2019

Superettan · Round 15Vikingavallen (Täby)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

IK Frej30%

×Draw25%

Mjallby AIF45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IK FrejExpected goals in this matchMjallby AIF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.60

IK Frej

1.26

Mjallby AIF

1.60

Mjallby AIF creates 27% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

1.40

creates per match

1.33

1.87

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

IK Frej

1.40

Mjallby AIF

1.33

allows per match

IK Frej

1.87

Mjallby AIF

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IK Frej+0.00on par

Mjallby AIF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IK Frej ↓

Mjallby AIF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

IK Frej or draw

55%

IK Frej or Mjallby AIF

75%

Draw or Mjallby AIF

70%

Winning margin

IK Frej wins by 2+

13%

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

IK Frej 1+ goals

72%

IK Frej 2+ goals

36%

IK Frej 3+ goals

13%

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals

80%

Mjallby AIF 2+ goals

47%

Mjallby AIF 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

IK Frej (draw refunded)

40%

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IK Frej at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

Mjallby AIF away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IK Frej attack 1.40 + Mjallby AIF defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Mjallby AIF attack 1.33 + IK Frej defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

IK Frej scores more

30%

level

25%

Mjallby AIF scores more

45%

Mjallby AIF at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff