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IK Frej vs Gefle IF — Ettan - Norra 2019

IK Frej
IK Frej
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gefle IF
Gefle IF
6/21/2020Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

IK Frej44%
×Draw24%
Gefle IF33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IK Frej
1.68
Gefle IF
1.42

IK Frej creates 18% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 82 away

creates per match

IK Frej
1.87
Gefle IF
1.37

allows per match

IK Frej
1.47
Gefle IF
1.49

finishing

IK Frej+0.00on par
Gefle IF+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IK Frej ↓

Gefle IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

IK Frej or draw
67%
IK Frej or Gefle IF
76%
Draw or Gefle IF
56%

Winning margin

IK Frej wins by 2+
23%
Gefle IF wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

IK Frej 1+ goals
81%
IK Frej 2+ goals
50%
IK Frej 3+ goals
24%
Gefle IF 1+ goals
76%
Gefle IF 2+ goals
41%
Gefle IF 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

IK Frej (draw refunded)
57%
Gefle IF (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IK Frej at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Gefle IF away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.49 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IK Frej attack 1.87 + Gefle IF defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.68

Gefle IF attack 1.37 + IK Frej defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

IK Frej scores more
44%
level
24%
Gefle IF scores more
33%

IK Frej at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "IK Frej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IK Frej vs Gefle IF

IK Frej and Gefle IF drew 1-1 in Ettan - Norra on June 21, 2020.