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IK Frej vs Gais — Superettan 2018

IK Frej
IK Frej
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gais
Gais
9/20/2019SuperettanSuperettan · Round 24Vikingavallen (Täby)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

IK Frej33%
×Draw25%
Gais42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IK Frej
1.33
Gais
1.54

Gais creates 16% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 76 away

creates per match

IK Frej
1.40
Gais
1.21

allows per match

IK Frej
1.87
Gais
1.26

finishing

IK Frej+0.00on par
Gais+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IK Frej ↓

Gais →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

IK Frej or draw
58%
IK Frej or Gais
75%
Draw or Gais
67%

Winning margin

IK Frej wins by 2+
14%
Gais wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

IK Frej 1+ goals
74%
IK Frej 2+ goals
38%
IK Frej 3+ goals
15%
Gais 1+ goals
79%
Gais 2+ goals
45%
Gais 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

IK Frej (draw refunded)
44%
Gais (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IK Frej at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

Gais away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IK Frej attack 1.40 + Gais defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.33

Gais attack 1.21 + IK Frej defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

IK Frej scores more
33%
level
25%
Gais scores more
42%

Gais at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: IK Frej 1–0 Gais

IK Frej beat Gais 1-0 in Superettan on September 20, 2019.

The match was played at Vikingavallen (Täby).