IK brage 2–2 Utsikten: Result & Stats | Superettan

IK brage

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Utsikten

A. Muhsin 66'

A. Lundin 47'

A. Johansson 63'

A. Salaou 38'

5/26/2025

Superettan · Round 10Domnarvsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

IK brage46%

×Draw25%

Utsikten29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IK brageExpected goals in this matchUtsikten

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.23

IK brage

1.61

Utsikten

1.23

IK brage creates 31% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 61 away

1.61

creates per match

1.13

1.34

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

IK brage

1.61

Utsikten

1.13

allows per match

IK brage

1.34

Utsikten

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IK brage+0.00on par

Utsikten+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IK brage ↓

Utsikten →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

IK brage or draw

71%

IK brage or Utsikten

75%

Draw or Utsikten

54%

Winning margin

IK brage wins by 2+

24%

Utsikten wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

IK brage 1+ goals

80%

IK brage 2+ goals

48%

IK brage 3+ goals

22%

Utsikten 1+ goals

71%

Utsikten 2+ goals

35%

Utsikten 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

IK brage (draw refunded)

61%

Utsikten (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IK brage at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.34 · 127 matches

Utsikten away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IK brage attack 1.61 + Utsikten defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.61

Utsikten attack 1.13 + IK brage defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

IK brage scores more

46%

level

25%

Utsikten scores more

29%

IK brage at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "IK brage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

H. Brkic

IK brage · M

7.9

Match Events

23'

D. Tokpah← K. Rodeblad Lowe

33'

38'

47'

56'

57'

E. Tot Wikstrom← G. Nordh

63'

A. Johansson↳ N. Johansson

66'

A. Muhsin↳ N. Ostberg

68'

J. Stensson← G. Berggren

68'

N. Astrand John← M. Persson

74'

J. Selven← E. Andren

74'

A. Sanyang← K. Bohm

82'

P. Jonsson← A. Lundin

89'

W. Hjort← A. Kabashi

90'

M. Sise←

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IKUtsikten

Overview

57%Possession43%

16Total Shots9

1.77Expected Goals (xG)1.94

8Corners1

15Fouls16

Shots

16Total Shots9

8On Target7

4Off Target1

4Blocked1

9Inside Box5

7Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

455Total Passes312

378Accurate Passes232

83%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

5Saves6

Discipline

15Fouls16

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

4Offsides2