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IK brage vs Orgryte IS — Superettan 2018

IK brage
IK brage
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Orgryte IS
Orgryte IS
6/15/2025SuperettanSuperettan · Round 12Domnarvsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

IK brage43%
×Draw25%
Orgryte IS32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IK brage
1.54
Orgryte IS
1.31

IK brage creates 18% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 122 away

creates per match

IK brage
1.61
Orgryte IS
1.29

allows per match

IK brage
1.34
Orgryte IS
1.46

finishing

IK brage+0.00on par
Orgryte IS+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IK brage ↓

Orgryte IS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

IK brage or draw
68%
IK brage or Orgryte IS
75%
Draw or Orgryte IS
57%

Winning margin

IK brage wins by 2+
21%
Orgryte IS wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

IK brage 1+ goals
79%
IK brage 2+ goals
45%
IK brage 3+ goals
20%
Orgryte IS 1+ goals
73%
Orgryte IS 2+ goals
38%
Orgryte IS 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

IK brage (draw refunded)
57%
Orgryte IS (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IK brage at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.34 · 127 matches

Orgryte IS away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.46 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IK brage attack 1.61 + Orgryte IS defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.54

Orgryte IS attack 1.29 + IK brage defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

IK brage scores more
43%
level
25%
Orgryte IS scores more
32%

IK brage at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "IK brage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IK brage vs Orgryte IS

IK brage beat Orgryte IS 3-2 in Superettan on June 15, 2025.

The match was played at Domnarvsvallen in Borlange.