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IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra — Superettan 2026

IK brage
IK brage
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Jonkopings Sodra
Jonkopings Sodra
4/18/2022SuperettanSuperettan · Round 3Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

IK brage43%
×Draw25%
Jonkopings Sodra32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IK brage
1.58
Jonkopings Sodra
1.32

IK brage creates 20% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 90 away

creates per match

IK brage
1.61
Jonkopings Sodra
1.30

allows per match

IK brage
1.34
Jonkopings Sodra
1.56

finishing

IK brage+0.00on par
Jonkopings Sodra+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IK brage ↓

Jonkopings Sodra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

IK brage or draw
68%
IK brage or Jonkopings Sodra
75%
Draw or Jonkopings Sodra
57%

Winning margin

IK brage wins by 2+
22%
Jonkopings Sodra wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

IK brage 1+ goals
79%
IK brage 2+ goals
47%
IK brage 3+ goals
21%
Jonkopings Sodra 1+ goals
73%
Jonkopings Sodra 2+ goals
38%
Jonkopings Sodra 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

IK brage (draw refunded)
58%
Jonkopings Sodra (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IK brage at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.34 · 127 matches

Jonkopings Sodra away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.56 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IK brage attack 1.61 + Jonkopings Sodra defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.58

Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.30 + IK brage defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

IK brage scores more
43%
level
25%
Jonkopings Sodra scores more
32%

IK brage at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "IK brage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra

Jonkopings Sodra beat IK brage 2-1 in Superettan on April 18, 2022.

The match was played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen in Borlänge.