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IK brage vs IF Brommapojkarna — Superettan 2026

IK brage
IK brage
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
IF Brommapojkarna
IF Brommapojkarna
J. Arvidsson 79'
D. Karlberg 75'
S. Hellberg 3'
S. Holm 51'
4/24/2022SuperettanSuperettan · Round 4Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

IK brage42%
×Draw24%
IF Brommapojkarna34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IK brage
1.62
IF Brommapojkarna
1.42

IK brage creates 14% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 30 away

creates per match

IK brage
1.61
IF Brommapojkarna
1.50

allows per match

IK brage
1.34
IF Brommapojkarna
1.63

finishing

IK brage+0.00on par
IF Brommapojkarna+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IK brage ↓

IF Brommapojkarna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

IK brage or draw
66%
IK brage or IF Brommapojkarna
76%
Draw or IF Brommapojkarna
58%

Winning margin

IK brage wins by 2+
21%
IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

IK brage 1+ goals
80%
IK brage 2+ goals
48%
IK brage 3+ goals
22%
IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals
76%
IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals
41%
IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

IK brage (draw refunded)
56%
IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IK brage at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.34 · 127 matches

IF Brommapojkarna away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IK brage attack 1.61 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.62

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.50 + IK brage defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

IK brage scores more
42%
level
24%
IF Brommapojkarna scores more
34%

IK brage at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "IK brage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
S. Hellberg
46'
H. Rashidi← O. Krusnell
51'
S. Holm
59'
Douglas Karlberg
68'
J. Arvidsson← N. Söderberg
68'
F. Sjöberg← S. Hellberg
68'
R. Deprem← M. Ćosić
72'
Filip Sjoberg
75'
D. Karlberg
78'
D. Złotnik← N. Maripuu
79'
J. Arvidsson
83'
P. Hellquist← M. Jelassi
85'
E. Gayi← A. Lundin
85'
J. Stensson← J. Persson
90'
S. Izountouemoi← D. Karlberg

Possession

52%IK

Shots

9IK

Statistics

IKIF
Overview
52%Possession48%
9Total Shots7
1Corners2
17Fouls13
Shots
9Total Shots7
5On Target3
4Off Target4
Passing
52%Possession48%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls13
2Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: IK brage vs IF Brommapojkarna

IK brage beat IF Brommapojkarna 3-1 in Superettan on April 24, 2022.

Goals: S. Hellberg (3'), S. Holm (51'), D. Karlberg (75'), J. Arvidsson (79').

IK brage controlled possession (52%) and registered 9 shots to 7.

The match was played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen in Borlänge.