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IK brage vs FBK Karlstad — Friendlies Clubs 2026

IK brage
IK brage
CANC
13:00
FBK Karlstad
FBK Karlstad
3/16/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

IK brage58%
×Draw21%
FBK Karlstad21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IK brage
2.13
FBK Karlstad
1.21

IK brage creates 76% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

IK brage
2.75
FBK Karlstad
1.17

allows per match

IK brage
1.25
FBK Karlstad
1.50

finishing

IK brage+0.00on par
FBK Karlstad+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IK brage ↓

FBK Karlstad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

IK brage or draw
79%
IK brage or FBK Karlstad
79%
Draw or FBK Karlstad
42%

Winning margin

IK brage wins by 2+
36%
FBK Karlstad wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

IK brage 1+ goals
88%
IK brage 2+ goals
63%
IK brage 3+ goals
35%
FBK Karlstad 1+ goals
70%
FBK Karlstad 2+ goals
34%
FBK Karlstad 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

IK brage (draw refunded)
73%
FBK Karlstad (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IK brage at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

FBK Karlstad away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IK brage attack 2.75 + FBK Karlstad defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.13

FBK Karlstad attack 1.17 + IK brage defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

IK brage scores more
58%
level
21%
FBK Karlstad scores more
21%

IK brage at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "IK brage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

IK brage face FBK Karlstad (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with IK brage hosting FBK Karlstad. Match starts March 16, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

IK brage host FBK Karlstad at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.