IK brage 1–3 AFC Eskilstuna: Result & Stats

IK brage

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

AFC Eskilstuna

D. Karlberg 56' (pen)

V. Götesson 77'

O. Nnamani 63'

C. Omeje 14'

11/29/2020

Superettan · Round 29Domnarvsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

IK brage47%

×Draw25%

AFC Eskilstuna29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IK brageExpected goals in this matchAFC Eskilstuna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.19

IK brage

1.59

AFC Eskilstuna

1.19

IK brage creates 34% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 77 away

1.61

creates per match

1.03

1.34

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

IK brage

1.61

AFC Eskilstuna

1.03

allows per match

IK brage

1.34

AFC Eskilstuna

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IK brage+0.00on par

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IK brage ↓

AFC Eskilstuna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

IK brage or draw

71%

IK brage or AFC Eskilstuna

75%

Draw or AFC Eskilstuna

53%

Winning margin

IK brage wins by 2+

24%

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

IK brage 1+ goals

80%

IK brage 2+ goals

47%

IK brage 3+ goals

21%

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals

70%

AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals

33%

AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

IK brage (draw refunded)

62%

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IK brage at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.34 · 127 matches

AFC Eskilstuna away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.57 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IK brage attack 1.61 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.59

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.03 + IK brage defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

IK brage scores more

47%

level

25%

AFC Eskilstuna scores more

29%

IK brage at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "IK brage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

C. Omeje

37'

W. Loeper

55'

R. Williams

56'

D. KarlbergPenalty

63'

O. Nnamani

65'

F. Ali← R. Williams

65'

V. Götesson← C. Omeje

67'

A. Lundin← N. Williams

76'

A. Kamp

77'

V. Götesson

78'

P. Jonsson← K. Andersen

78'

L. Hiltunen← A. Ekblad

78'

T. Hartzell← Gabriel Somi

78'

A. Larsson← W. Loeper

86'

A. Lundin

86'

M. Gorgos← O. Nnamani

88'

A. Teklesenbet← A. Kamp

88'

Y. Hawat← R. Sellin

Possession

Shots

Statistics

IKAFC

Overview

44%Possession56%

9Total Shots8

7Corners5

11Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots8

2On Target5

7Off Target3

Passing

44%Possession56%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0