AFC Eskilstuna 2–1 IK brage: Result & Stats

AFC Eskilstuna

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

IK brage

A. Coffey 47', 4'

R. Sellin 44'

8/28/2021

Superettan · Round 18Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

AFC Eskilstuna46%

×Draw26%

IK brage29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC EskilstunaExpected goals in this matchIK brage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.13

AFC Eskilstuna

1.50

IK brage

1.13

AFC Eskilstuna creates 33% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 127 away

1.58

creates per match

1.30

0.95

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

AFC Eskilstuna

1.58

IK brage

1.30

allows per match

AFC Eskilstuna

0.95

IK brage

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

IK brage+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Eskilstuna ↓

IK brage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

AFC Eskilstuna or draw

71%

AFC Eskilstuna or IK brage

74%

Draw or IK brage

54%

Winning margin

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+

23%

IK brage wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals

78%

AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals

44%

AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals

19%

IK brage 1+ goals

68%

IK brage 2+ goals

31%

IK brage 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

62%

IK brage (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Eskilstuna at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.95 · 79 matches

IK brage away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.43 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.58 + IK brage defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.50

IK brage attack 1.30 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

AFC Eskilstuna scores more

46%

level

26%

IK brage scores more

29%

AFC Eskilstuna at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "AFC Eskilstuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

29'

30'

41'

44'

46'

J. Manns← V. Fors

47'

A. Coffey

66'

B. Antonsson← S. Hellberg

66'

N. Söderberg← R. Sellin

66'

F. Sjöberg← J. Persson

67'

K. Takahashi← Felix Michel

67'

V. Götesson← A. Ahl-Holmström

70'

Ismet Lushaku

70'

André Alsanati

78'

A. Yakubu← A. Alsanati

78'

Y. Rafael← A. Linnér

80'

S. Maholli← D. Karlberg

Possession

Shots

Statistics

AFCIK

Overview

52%Possession48%

11Total Shots4

3Corners4

18Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots4

6On Target3

5Off Target1

Passing

52%Possession48%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls15

4Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

6Offsides2