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Ijsselmeervogels vs Volendam II — Tweede Divisie 2019

Ijsselmeervogels
Ijsselmeervogels
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Volendam II
Volendam II
11/12/2022Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 14Sportpark De Westmaat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Ijsselmeervogels49%
×Draw21%
Volendam II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ijsselmeervogels
2.13
Volendam II
1.66

Ijsselmeervogels creates 28% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 49 away

creates per match

Ijsselmeervogels
1.70
Volendam II
1.59

allows per match

Ijsselmeervogels
1.72
Volendam II
2.57

finishing

Ijsselmeervogels+0.00on par
Volendam II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ijsselmeervogels ↓

Volendam II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Ijsselmeervogels or draw
70%
Ijsselmeervogels or Volendam II
79%
Draw or Volendam II
51%

Winning margin

Ijsselmeervogels wins by 2+
28%
Volendam II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ijsselmeervogels 1+ goals
88%
Ijsselmeervogels 2+ goals
63%
Ijsselmeervogels 3+ goals
35%
Volendam II 1+ goals
81%
Volendam II 2+ goals
49%
Volendam II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Ijsselmeervogels (draw refunded)
61%
Volendam II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ijsselmeervogels at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.72 · 69 matches

Volendam II away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ijsselmeervogels attack 1.70 + Volendam II defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.13

Volendam II attack 1.59 + Ijsselmeervogels defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ijsselmeervogels scores more
49%
level
21%
Volendam II scores more
30%

Ijsselmeervogels at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ijsselmeervogels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: Ijsselmeervogels 0–1 Volendam II

Volendam II beat Ijsselmeervogels 1-0 in Tweede Divisie on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark De Westmaat in Bunschoten.