Ijsselmeervogels 4–3 Volendam II: Result & Stats

Ijsselmeervogels

FT

4 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Volendam II

M. van den Ban 89'

A. El Azzouti 84', 74', 67'

J. Kruiver 48'

L. Maloney 39'

J. Beers 31'

9/26/2020

Tweede Divisie · Round 4Sportpark De Westmaat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Ijsselmeervogels48%

×Draw21%

Volendam II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IjsselmeervogelsExpected goals in this matchVolendam II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.69

Ijsselmeervogels

2.13

Volendam II

1.69

Ijsselmeervogels creates 26% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 48 away

1.68

creates per match

1.63

1.75

allows per match

2.58

creates per match

Ijsselmeervogels

1.68

Volendam II

1.63

allows per match

Ijsselmeervogels

1.75

Volendam II

2.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ijsselmeervogels+0.00on par

Volendam II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ijsselmeervogels ↓

Volendam II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Ijsselmeervogels or draw

69%

Ijsselmeervogels or Volendam II

79%

Draw or Volendam II

52%

Winning margin

Ijsselmeervogels wins by 2+

28%

Volendam II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Ijsselmeervogels 1+ goals

88%

Ijsselmeervogels 2+ goals

63%

Ijsselmeervogels 3+ goals

35%

Volendam II 1+ goals

82%

Volendam II 2+ goals

50%

Volendam II 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Ijsselmeervogels (draw refunded)

61%

Volendam II (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ijsselmeervogels at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.75 · 68 matches

Volendam II away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.58 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ijsselmeervogels attack 1.68 + Volendam II defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.13

Volendam II attack 1.63 + Ijsselmeervogels defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ijsselmeervogels scores more

48%

level

21%

Volendam II scores more

31%

Ijsselmeervogels at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ijsselmeervogels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

J. Beers↳ M. Veerman

39'

L. Maloney↳ J. Kruiver

46'

E. van Riel← M. van de Laar

46'

C. Ibrahim← G. Vlak

48'

J. Kruiver

67'

A. El Azzouti↳ D. van den Meiracker

72'

M. van den Ban← S. Kozjak

74'

A. El Azzouti↳ M. van den Ban

77'

S. Kramer← J. Kruiver

78'

S. Monteiro

78'

K. Blommestijn← L. Maloney

81'

J. Roggeveen

84'

A. El Azzouti↳ M. van den Ban

85'

89'

M. van den Ban↳ E. van Riel

90'

A. Vossen← L. Veerman

Ijsselmeervogels

Volendam

1

Roggeveen

2

⚽A

▼

Kruiver

5

Flint

3

A

Veerman

10

Schulte

6

▼

Veerman

8

Twigt

7

Tol

11

⚽

▼

Maloney

9

⚽

4

1

2

12

22

8

▼

Laar

5

Arnhem

6

▼

Vlak

9

A

Meiracker

10

⚽3

Azzouti

11

Douiri

19

▼

Kozjak

Manager: B. Smit

46'▲E. van Riel←▼M. van de Laar

46'▲C. Ibrahim←▼G. Vlak

72'▲M. van den Ban←▼S. Kozjak

Ijsselmeervogels substitutes

16Riel30Ibrahim7Ban3Buitenhuis4Diermen25Brummel14Harder

Manager: J. Plat

77'▲S. Kramer←▼J. Kruiver

78'▲K. Blommestijn←▼L. Maloney

90'▲A. Vossen←▼L. Veerman

Volendam II substitutes

12Kramer15Blommestijn17Vossen16Vlak14Lautenschutz

Tweede Divisie: Ijsselmeervogels 4–3 Volendam II

Ijsselmeervogels beat Volendam II 4-3 in Tweede Divisie on September 26, 2020.

Goals: J. Beers (31'), L. Maloney (39'), J. Kruiver (48'), A. El Azzouti (67', 74', 84'), M. van den Ban (89').

The match was played at Sportpark De Westmaat in Bunschoten.

Ijsselmeervogels vs Volendam II — Tweede Divisie 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tweede Divisie: Ijsselmeervogels 4–3 Volendam II