Ijsselmeervogels vs Spakenburg — Tweede Divisie 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 69+ matches
Ijsselmeervogels38%
Spakenburg39%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 69 home / 100 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over68
- Under32
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes68
- No32
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ijsselmeervogels ↓
Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ijsselmeervogels at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.74 · 69 matches
Spakenburg away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.83 · 100 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ijsselmeervogels attack 1.65 + Spakenburg defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.74
Spakenburg attack 1.79 + Ijsselmeervogels defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.77
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Spakenburg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Spakenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Quick Boys
De Treffers
Hoek
Rijnsburgse Boys
HHCSpakenburg
Katwijk
Almere City II
Sparta Rotterdam II
Kozakken BoysIjsselmeervogels
AFC Amsterdam
Barendrecht
RKAV Volendam
GVVV Veenendaal
Excelsior Maassluis
Koninklijke HFC
ACV
Rijnvogels
ADO '20
Groningen U21
DVS 33 Ermelo
Vvsb
FC Lisse
Sparta NijkerkIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Ijsselmeervogels host Spakenburg on Saturday, 22 April 2023 at 13:00. The match is part of the Tweede Divisie 2019/2020 season.
Tweede Divisie: Ijsselmeervogels 4–1 Spakenburg
Ijsselmeervogels beat Spakenburg 4-1 in Tweede Divisie on April 22, 2023.
Goals: L. Admiraal (11'), J. van der Velden (51'), M. El Haddouti (55', 90+3'), M. van de Laar (71').
The match was played at Sportpark De Westmaat in Bunschoten.