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Ijsselmeervogels vs RKAV Volendam — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Ijsselmeervogels
Ijsselmeervogels
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
RKAV Volendam
RKAV Volendam
2/3/2024Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 21Sportpark De Westmaat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ijsselmeervogels63%
×Draw18%
RKAV Volendam19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ijsselmeervogels
2.60
RKAV Volendam
1.39

Ijsselmeervogels creates 87% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Ijsselmeervogels
3.00
RKAV Volendam
1.74

allows per match

Ijsselmeervogels
1.03
RKAV Volendam
2.21

finishing

Ijsselmeervogels+0.00on par
RKAV Volendam+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ijsselmeervogels ↓

RKAV Volendam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Ijsselmeervogels or draw
81%
Ijsselmeervogels or RKAV Volendam
82%
Draw or RKAV Volendam
37%

Winning margin

Ijsselmeervogels wins by 2+
42%
RKAV Volendam wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ijsselmeervogels 1+ goals
92%
Ijsselmeervogels 2+ goals
73%
Ijsselmeervogels 3+ goals
47%
RKAV Volendam 1+ goals
75%
RKAV Volendam 2+ goals
40%
RKAV Volendam 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Ijsselmeervogels (draw refunded)
77%
RKAV Volendam (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ijsselmeervogels at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.03 · 34 matches

RKAV Volendam away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ijsselmeervogels attack 3.00 + RKAV Volendam defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.60

RKAV Volendam attack 1.74 + Ijsselmeervogels defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ijsselmeervogels scores more
63%
level
18%
RKAV Volendam scores more
19%

Ijsselmeervogels at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ijsselmeervogels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Ijsselmeervogels 0–3 RKAV Volendam

RKAV Volendam beat Ijsselmeervogels 3-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark De Westmaat in Bunschoten-Spakenburg.