Ijsselmeervogels 3–2 OFC Oostzaan: Result & Stats

Ijsselmeervogels

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

OFC Oostzaan

8/20/2022

Tweede Divisie · Round 1Sportpark De Westmaat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ijsselmeervogels62%

×Draw19%

OFC Oostzaan19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IjsselmeervogelsExpected goals in this matchOFC Oostzaan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.21

Ijsselmeervogels

2.35

OFC Oostzaan

1.21

Ijsselmeervogels creates 94% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 17 away

1.70

creates per match

0.71

1.72

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Ijsselmeervogels

1.70

OFC Oostzaan

0.71

allows per match

Ijsselmeervogels

1.72

OFC Oostzaan

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ijsselmeervogels+0.00on par

OFC Oostzaan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ijsselmeervogels ↓

OFC Oostzaan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Ijsselmeervogels or draw

81%

Ijsselmeervogels or OFC Oostzaan

81%

Draw or OFC Oostzaan

38%

Winning margin

Ijsselmeervogels wins by 2+

40%

OFC Oostzaan wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ijsselmeervogels 1+ goals

90%

Ijsselmeervogels 2+ goals

68%

Ijsselmeervogels 3+ goals

41%

OFC Oostzaan 1+ goals

70%

OFC Oostzaan 2+ goals

34%

OFC Oostzaan 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ijsselmeervogels (draw refunded)

77%

OFC Oostzaan (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ijsselmeervogels at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.72 · 69 matches

OFC Oostzaan away — creates 0.71, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ijsselmeervogels attack 1.70 + OFC Oostzaan defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.35

OFC Oostzaan attack 0.71 + Ijsselmeervogels defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ijsselmeervogels scores more

62%

level

19%

OFC Oostzaan scores more

19%

Ijsselmeervogels at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ijsselmeervogels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff