Ijsselmeervogels 0–0 Katwijk: Result & Stats

Ijsselmeervogels

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Katwijk

9/24/2022

Tweede Divisie · Round 8Sportpark De Westmaat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Ijsselmeervogels33%

×Draw23%

Katwijk44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IjsselmeervogelsExpected goals in this matchKatwijk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.75

Ijsselmeervogels

1.48

Katwijk

1.75

Katwijk creates 18% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 99 away

1.65

creates per match

1.77

1.74

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Ijsselmeervogels

1.65

Katwijk

1.77

allows per match

Ijsselmeervogels

1.74

Katwijk

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ijsselmeervogels+0.00on par

Katwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ijsselmeervogels ↓

Katwijk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Ijsselmeervogels or draw

56%

Ijsselmeervogels or Katwijk

77%

Draw or Katwijk

67%

Winning margin

Ijsselmeervogels wins by 2+

15%

Katwijk wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Ijsselmeervogels 1+ goals

77%

Ijsselmeervogels 2+ goals

43%

Ijsselmeervogels 3+ goals

19%

Katwijk 1+ goals

83%

Katwijk 2+ goals

52%

Katwijk 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Ijsselmeervogels (draw refunded)

43%

Katwijk (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ijsselmeervogels at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.74 · 69 matches

Katwijk away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.32 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ijsselmeervogels attack 1.65 + Katwijk defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.48

Katwijk attack 1.77 + Ijsselmeervogels defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ijsselmeervogels scores more

33%

level

23%

Katwijk scores more

44%

Katwijk at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Katwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

M. Suleiman← K. van Mil

53'

Q. Christina

57'

J. Westerman← K. Visser

66'

G. van de Groep← P. ten Have

69'

A. Mercera← Q. Christina

78'

C. Ibrahim← S. Sánchez

78'

K. Tadmine← M. El Haddouti

82'

H. Botermans← T. Freriks

83'

M. van de Laar

86'

K. Sterling

Ijsselmeervogels

Katwijk

1

30

3

15

21

22

▼

4

10

7

9

▼

Freriks

11

▼

Mil

1

Schaap

12

▼

3

22

16

8

7

▼

Sánchez

14

Ruizendaa

11

Sterling

34

▼

Haddouti

9

▼

Visser

Manager: G. de Gunst

57'▲J. Westerman←▼K. Visser

66'▲G. van de Groep←▼P. ten Have

78'▲C. Ibrahim←▼S. Sánchez

78'▲K. Tadmine←▼M. El Haddouti

Ijsselmeervogels substitutes

17Westerman15Groep20Ibrahim10Tadmine6Arnhem18Rosheuvel25List

Manager: A. Correia

46'▲M. Suleiman←▼K. van Mil

69'▲A. Mercera←▼Q. Christina

82'▲H. Botermans←▼T. Freriks

Katwijk substitutes

20Suleiman17Mercera19Botermans25Janmaat31Fikkert35Kooij