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Ijsselmeervogels vs Kampong — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Ijsselmeervogels
Ijsselmeervogels
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kampong
Kampong
9/30/2023Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 7Sportpark De Westmaat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ijsselmeervogels67%
×Draw17%
Kampong16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ijsselmeervogels
2.76
Kampong
1.31

Ijsselmeervogels creates 111% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ijsselmeervogels
3.00
Kampong
1.59

allows per match

Ijsselmeervogels
1.03
Kampong
2.53

finishing

Ijsselmeervogels+0.00on par
Kampong+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ijsselmeervogels ↓

Kampong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Ijsselmeervogels or draw
84%
Ijsselmeervogels or Kampong
83%
Draw or Kampong
33%

Winning margin

Ijsselmeervogels wins by 2+
46%
Kampong wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ijsselmeervogels 1+ goals
94%
Ijsselmeervogels 2+ goals
76%
Ijsselmeervogels 3+ goals
51%
Kampong 1+ goals
73%
Kampong 2+ goals
38%
Kampong 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ijsselmeervogels (draw refunded)
81%
Kampong (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ijsselmeervogels at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.03 · 34 matches

Kampong away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ijsselmeervogels attack 3.00 + Kampong defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.76

Kampong attack 1.59 + Ijsselmeervogels defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Ijsselmeervogels scores more
67%
level
17%
Kampong scores more
16%

Ijsselmeervogels at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Ijsselmeervogels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ijsselmeervogels vs Kampong

Ijsselmeervogels beat Kampong 2-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark De Westmaat in Bunschoten-Spakenburg.