Ijsselmeervogels 2–0 De Treffers: Result & Stats

Ijsselmeervogels

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

De Treffers

V. van den Anker 80'

M. van Hees 33'

9/20/2025

Tweede Divisie · Round 6Sportpark De Westmaat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Ijsselmeervogels36%

×Draw23%

De Treffers41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IjsselmeervogelsExpected goals in this matchDe Treffers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.68

Ijsselmeervogels

1.57

De Treffers

1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 99 away

1.65

creates per match

1.61

1.74

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Ijsselmeervogels

1.65

De Treffers

1.61

allows per match

Ijsselmeervogels

1.74

De Treffers

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ijsselmeervogels+0.00on par

De Treffers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ijsselmeervogels ↓

De Treffers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Ijsselmeervogels or draw

59%

Ijsselmeervogels or De Treffers

77%

Draw or De Treffers

64%

Winning margin

Ijsselmeervogels wins by 2+

17%

De Treffers wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Ijsselmeervogels 1+ goals

79%

Ijsselmeervogels 2+ goals

46%

Ijsselmeervogels 3+ goals

21%

De Treffers 1+ goals

81%

De Treffers 2+ goals

50%

De Treffers 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Ijsselmeervogels (draw refunded)

47%

De Treffers (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ijsselmeervogels at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.74 · 69 matches

De Treffers away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.49 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ijsselmeervogels attack 1.65 + De Treffers defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.57

De Treffers attack 1.61 + Ijsselmeervogels defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ijsselmeervogels scores more

36%

level

23%

De Treffers scores more

41%

De Treffers at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "De Treffers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

C. Van Bohemen

33'

M. van Hees↳ C. Van Bohemen

46'

R. Ippel← G. Vlijter

46'

C. Maertzdorf← T. Waterink

63'

T. Beekman← M. van Hees

68'

R. Ippel

74'

J. van Ginkel← G. Joppen

74'

A. Yadir← S. van Bakel

76'

G. Kuisch

76'

M. Hardijk

77'

W. den Dekker

78'

V. van den Anker← R. Schulte

80'

V. van den Anker↳ G. Kuisch

84'

N. Butter

86'

J. van Beukering← B. Sirvania

88'

T. Gemert← A. Dkidak

88'

G. van de Groep← N. Butter

Ijsselmeervogels

De

1

Stoskovic

5

▼

Sirvania

17

▼

Bakel

3

Langeveld

4

▼

24

8

10

19

▼

Waterink

16

Hazzat

11

▼

Vlijter

1

Schaap

77

A

Kuisch

33

A

22

5

3

6

▼

Schulte

8

▼

Butter

21

⚽

▼

Hees

11

Hardijk

10

▼

Dkidak

Manager: Raymond Bronkhorst

63'▲T. Beekman←▼M. van Hees

78'▲V. van den Anker←▼R. Schulte

88'▲T. Gemert←▼A. Dkidak

88'▲G. van de Groep←▼N. Butter

Ijsselmeervogels substitutes

20Kaarsgaren16Gemert23Gorkom2Groep7Beekman15Anker

Manager: Theo Janssen

46'▲R. Ippel←▼G. Vlijter

46'▲C. Maertzdorf←▼T. Waterink

74'▲J. van Ginkel←▼G. Joppen

74'▲A. Yadir←▼S. van Bakel

86'▲J. van Beukering←▼B. Sirvania

De Treffers substitutes

31Frehe21Ginkel6Ippel22Yadir15Beukering7Maertzdorf