Ijsselmeervogels 4–3 Ajax Amateurs: Result & Stats

Ijsselmeervogels

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Ajax Amateurs

10/5/2024

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 8Sportpark De Westmaat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ijsselmeervogels68%

×Draw17%

Ajax Amateurs15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IjsselmeervogelsExpected goals in this matchAjax Amateurs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

1.08

Ijsselmeervogels

2.52

Ajax Amateurs

1.08

Ijsselmeervogels creates 133% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 49 away

3.00

creates per match

1.12

1.03

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Ijsselmeervogels

3.00

Ajax Amateurs

1.12

allows per match

Ijsselmeervogels

1.03

Ajax Amateurs

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ijsselmeervogels+0.00on par

Ajax Amateurs+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ijsselmeervogels ↓

Ajax Amateurs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Ijsselmeervogels or draw

85%

Ijsselmeervogels or Ajax Amateurs

83%

Draw or Ajax Amateurs

32%

Winning margin

Ijsselmeervogels wins by 2+

46%

Ajax Amateurs wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Ijsselmeervogels 1+ goals

92%

Ijsselmeervogels 2+ goals

71%

Ijsselmeervogels 3+ goals

45%

Ajax Amateurs 1+ goals

66%

Ajax Amateurs 2+ goals

29%

Ajax Amateurs 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ijsselmeervogels (draw refunded)

82%

Ajax Amateurs (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ijsselmeervogels at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.03 · 34 matches

Ajax Amateurs away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.04 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ijsselmeervogels attack 3.00 + Ajax Amateurs defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.52

Ajax Amateurs attack 1.12 + Ijsselmeervogels defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Ijsselmeervogels scores more

68%

level

17%

Ajax Amateurs scores more

15%

Ijsselmeervogels at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Ijsselmeervogels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff