Ihud Bnei Shfaram vs Kafr Qasim — Liga Leumit 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 18+ matches
Ihud Bnei Shfaram24%
Kafr Qasim51%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Kafr Qasim creates 57% more chances
Season form · 18 home / 113 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ihud Bnei Shfaram ↓
Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ihud Bnei Shfaram at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches
Kafr Qasim away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.13 · 113 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ihud Bnei Shfaram attack 0.89 + Kafr Qasim defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.01
Kafr Qasim attack 0.96 + Ihud Bnei Shfaram defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.59
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Kafr Qasim at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Kafr Qasim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Hapoel Ramat Gan
Maccabi Herzliya
Bnei Yehuda
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
Kiryat Yam SC
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Hapoel Kfar Saba
Hapoel Ra'anana
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Hapoel AfulaKafr Qasim
Hapoel Acre
Ironi Modi'in
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
Hapoel HaderaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Ihud Bnei Shfaram host Kafr Qasim on Tuesday, 20 February 2024 at 17:00. The match is part of the Liga Leumit 2019/2020 season.
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 1 – 2 Kafr Qasim
Kafr Qasim beat Ihud Bnei Shfaram 2-1 in Liga Leumit on February 20, 2024.
Goals: G. Dahan (7' pen, 39'), C. Tchamba (17').
The match was played at Acre Municipal Stadium in Accre.