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Ihud Bnei Shfaram vs Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara — State Cup 2019

Ihud Bnei Shfaram
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara
Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara
Unknown 81', 63', 57'
Unknown 45'
9/20/2022State CupState Cup · 6th RoundKaukab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ihud Bnei Shfaram45%
×Draw21%
Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ihud Bnei Shfaram
2.17
Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara
1.88

Ihud Bnei Shfaram creates 15% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Ihud Bnei Shfaram
2.33
Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara
2.75

allows per match

Ihud Bnei Shfaram
1.00
Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara
2.00

finishing

Ihud Bnei Shfaram+0.00on par
Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ihud Bnei Shfaram ↓

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Ihud Bnei Shfaram or draw
66%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram or Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara
79%
Draw or Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara
55%

Winning margin

Ihud Bnei Shfaram wins by 2+
26%
Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ihud Bnei Shfaram 1+ goals
89%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 2+ goals
64%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 3+ goals
36%
Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara 1+ goals
85%
Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara 2+ goals
56%
Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Ihud Bnei Shfaram (draw refunded)
57%
Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ihud Bnei Shfaram at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara away — creates 2.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ihud Bnei Shfaram attack 2.33 + Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara attack 2.75 + Ihud Bnei Shfaram defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ihud Bnei Shfaram scores more
45%
level
21%
Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara scores more
34%

Ihud Bnei Shfaram at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ihud Bnei Shfaram will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
57'
63'
81'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Ihud Bnei Shfaram 3–1 Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara

Ihud Bnei Shfaram beat Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara 3-1 in State Cup on September 20, 2022.

Goals: ? (45', 57', 63', 81').

The match was played at Kaukab Stadium in Kaukab Abu al-Hija.