Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ihud Bnei Shfaram vs Hapoel Kfar Saba — Liga Leumit 2019

Ihud Bnei Shfaram
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Kfar Saba
Hapoel Kfar Saba
5/3/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Relegation Round - 3Acre Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ihud Bnei Shfaram24%
×Draw24%
Hapoel Kfar Saba53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ihud Bnei Shfaram
1.08
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.74

Hapoel Kfar Saba creates 61% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 95 away

creates per match

Ihud Bnei Shfaram
0.89
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.25

allows per match

Ihud Bnei Shfaram
2.22
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.28

finishing

Ihud Bnei Shfaram+0.00on par
Hapoel Kfar Saba+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ihud Bnei Shfaram ↓

Hapoel Kfar Saba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ihud Bnei Shfaram or draw
47%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram or Hapoel Kfar Saba
76%
Draw or Hapoel Kfar Saba
76%

Winning margin

Ihud Bnei Shfaram wins by 2+
9%
Hapoel Kfar Saba wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Ihud Bnei Shfaram 1+ goals
66%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 2+ goals
29%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 3+ goals
10%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 1+ goals
82%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 2+ goals
52%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Ihud Bnei Shfaram (draw refunded)
31%
Hapoel Kfar Saba (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ihud Bnei Shfaram at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

Hapoel Kfar Saba away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ihud Bnei Shfaram attack 0.89 + Hapoel Kfar Saba defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.08

Hapoel Kfar Saba attack 1.25 + Ihud Bnei Shfaram defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ihud Bnei Shfaram scores more
24%
level
24%
Hapoel Kfar Saba scores more
53%

Hapoel Kfar Saba at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hapoel Kfar Saba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Ihud Bnei Shfaram 2–1 Hapoel Kfar Saba

Ihud Bnei Shfaram beat Hapoel Kfar Saba 2-1 in Liga Leumit on May 3, 2024.

The match was played at Acre Municipal Stadium in Accre.