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Ihud Bnei Shfaram vs Bnei Yehuda — State Cup 2019

Ihud Bnei Shfaram
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
FT
2 – 1
Bnei Yehuda
Bnei Yehuda
10/19/2022State CupState Cup · 7th RoundKaukab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ihud Bnei Shfaram45%
×Draw25%
Bnei Yehuda30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ihud Bnei Shfaram
1.58
Bnei Yehuda
1.25

Ihud Bnei Shfaram creates 26% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Ihud Bnei Shfaram
2.33
Bnei Yehuda
1.50

allows per match

Ihud Bnei Shfaram
1.00
Bnei Yehuda
0.83

finishing

Ihud Bnei Shfaram+0.00on par
Bnei Yehuda+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ihud Bnei Shfaram ↓

Bnei Yehuda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ihud Bnei Shfaram or draw
70%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram or Bnei Yehuda
75%
Draw or Bnei Yehuda
55%

Winning margin

Ihud Bnei Shfaram wins by 2+
23%
Bnei Yehuda wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ihud Bnei Shfaram 1+ goals
79%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 2+ goals
47%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 3+ goals
21%
Bnei Yehuda 1+ goals
71%
Bnei Yehuda 2+ goals
36%
Bnei Yehuda 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ihud Bnei Shfaram (draw refunded)
60%
Bnei Yehuda (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ihud Bnei Shfaram at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Bnei Yehuda away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ihud Bnei Shfaram attack 2.33 + Bnei Yehuda defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.58

Bnei Yehuda attack 1.50 + Ihud Bnei Shfaram defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ihud Bnei Shfaram scores more
45%
level
25%
Bnei Yehuda scores more
30%

Ihud Bnei Shfaram at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ihud Bnei Shfaram will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ihud Bnei Shfaram vs Bnei Yehuda

Ihud Bnei Shfaram beat Bnei Yehuda 2-1 in State Cup on October 19, 2022.

The match was played at Kaukab Stadium in Kaukab Abu al-Hija.