Ihud Bnei Baka 0–4 Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara

Ihud Bnei Baka

0 – 4

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara

8/30/2022

State Cup · 1st Round (Liga Bet)Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ihud Bnei Baka32%

×Draw20%

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ihud Bnei BakaExpected goals in this matchIhud Bnei Kfar Kara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

2.31

Ihud Bnei Baka

1.85

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara

2.31

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara creates 25% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

1.71

creates per match

2.75

1.86

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Ihud Bnei Baka

1.71

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara

2.75

allows per match

Ihud Bnei Baka

1.86

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ihud Bnei Baka+0.00on par

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ihud Bnei Baka ↓

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara →

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Ihud Bnei Baka or draw

52%

Ihud Bnei Baka or Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara

80%

Draw or Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara

68%

Winning margin

Ihud Bnei Baka wins by 2+

16%

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Ihud Bnei Baka 1+ goals

84%

Ihud Bnei Baka 2+ goals

55%

Ihud Bnei Baka 3+ goals

28%

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara 1+ goals

90%

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara 2+ goals

67%

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Ihud Bnei Baka (draw refunded)

39%

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ihud Bnei Baka at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara away — creates 2.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ihud Bnei Baka attack 1.71 + Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.85

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara attack 2.75 + Ihud Bnei Baka defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ihud Bnei Baka scores more

32%

level

20%

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara scores more

48%

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff