Ihud Bnei Baka 2–3 Hapoel Bnei Musmus

Ihud Bnei Baka

2 – 3

Hapoel Bnei Musmus

8/31/2019

State Cup · 1st RoundUpper Kafr Qasim Synthetic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ihud Bnei Baka35%

×Draw23%

Hapoel Bnei Musmus42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ihud Bnei BakaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Bnei Musmus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.73

Ihud Bnei Baka

1.55

Hapoel Bnei Musmus

1.73

Hapoel Bnei Musmus creates 12% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.71

creates per match

1.60

1.86

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Ihud Bnei Baka

1.71

Hapoel Bnei Musmus

1.60

allows per match

Ihud Bnei Baka

1.86

Hapoel Bnei Musmus

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ihud Bnei Baka+0.00on par

Hapoel Bnei Musmus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ihud Bnei Baka ↓

Hapoel Bnei Musmus →

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Ihud Bnei Baka or draw

58%

Ihud Bnei Baka or Hapoel Bnei Musmus

77%

Draw or Hapoel Bnei Musmus

65%

Winning margin

Ihud Bnei Baka wins by 2+

17%

Hapoel Bnei Musmus wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Ihud Bnei Baka 1+ goals

79%

Ihud Bnei Baka 2+ goals

46%

Ihud Bnei Baka 3+ goals

20%

Hapoel Bnei Musmus 1+ goals

82%

Hapoel Bnei Musmus 2+ goals

52%

Hapoel Bnei Musmus 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Ihud Bnei Baka (draw refunded)

45%

Hapoel Bnei Musmus (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ihud Bnei Baka at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Hapoel Bnei Musmus away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ihud Bnei Baka attack 1.71 + Hapoel Bnei Musmus defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.55

Hapoel Bnei Musmus attack 1.60 + Ihud Bnei Baka defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ihud Bnei Baka scores more

35%

level

23%

Hapoel Bnei Musmus scores more

42%

Hapoel Bnei Musmus at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hapoel Bnei Musmus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff