Ihefu 1–0 Ruvu Shooting: Result & Stats

Ihefu

FT

1 – 0

Ruvu Shooting

9/13/2020

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 2Sokoine Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Ihefu48%

×Draw29%

Ruvu Shooting23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IhefuExpected goals in this matchRuvu Shooting

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.80

Ihefu

1.29

Ruvu Shooting

0.80

Ihefu creates 61% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 66 away

1.17

creates per match

0.76

0.85

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Ihefu

1.17

Ruvu Shooting

0.76

allows per match

Ihefu

0.85

Ruvu Shooting

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ihefu+0.00on par

Ruvu Shooting+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ihefu ↓

Ruvu Shooting →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ihefu or draw

77%

Ihefu or Ruvu Shooting

71%

Draw or Ruvu Shooting

52%

Winning margin

Ihefu wins by 2+

22%

Ruvu Shooting wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ihefu 1+ goals

72%

Ihefu 2+ goals

37%

Ihefu 3+ goals

14%

Ruvu Shooting 1+ goals

55%

Ruvu Shooting 2+ goals

19%

Ruvu Shooting 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ihefu (draw refunded)

67%

Ruvu Shooting (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ihefu at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.85 · 47 matches

Ruvu Shooting away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.42 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ihefu attack 1.17 + Ruvu Shooting defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.29

Ruvu Shooting attack 0.76 + Ihefu defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ihefu scores more

48%

level

29%

Ruvu Shooting scores more

23%

Ihefu at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ihefu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff