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Ihefu vs Mtibwa Sugar — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Ihefu
Ihefu
FT
0 – 1
Mtibwa Sugar
Mtibwa Sugar
9/18/2020Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 3Sokoine Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Ihefu51%
×Draw28%
Mtibwa Sugar21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ihefu
1.34
Mtibwa Sugar
0.74

Ihefu creates 81% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 95 away

creates per match

Ihefu
1.17
Mtibwa Sugar
0.63

allows per match

Ihefu
0.85
Mtibwa Sugar
1.51

finishing

Ihefu+0.00on par
Mtibwa Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ihefu ↓

Mtibwa Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ihefu or draw
79%
Ihefu or Mtibwa Sugar
72%
Draw or Mtibwa Sugar
49%

Winning margin

Ihefu wins by 2+
24%
Mtibwa Sugar wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ihefu 1+ goals
74%
Ihefu 2+ goals
39%
Ihefu 3+ goals
15%
Mtibwa Sugar 1+ goals
52%
Mtibwa Sugar 2+ goals
17%
Mtibwa Sugar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ihefu (draw refunded)
71%
Mtibwa Sugar (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ihefu at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.85 · 47 matches

Mtibwa Sugar away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.51 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ihefu attack 1.17 + Mtibwa Sugar defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.34

Mtibwa Sugar attack 0.63 + Ihefu defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ihefu scores more
51%
level
28%
Mtibwa Sugar scores more
21%

Ihefu at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ihefu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ihefu vs Mtibwa Sugar

Mtibwa Sugar beat Ihefu 1-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on September 18, 2020.

The match was played at Sokoine Stadium in Mbeya.