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Ihefu vs Mbeya City — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Ihefu
Ihefu
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mbeya City
Mbeya City
2/5/2023Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 22Highland Estate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Ihefu48%
×Draw29%
Mbeya City23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ihefu
1.28
Mbeya City
0.80

Ihefu creates 60% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 81 away

creates per match

Ihefu
1.17
Mbeya City
0.75

allows per match

Ihefu
0.85
Mbeya City
1.40

finishing

Ihefu+0.00on par
Mbeya City+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ihefu ↓

Mbeya City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ihefu or draw
77%
Ihefu or Mbeya City
71%
Draw or Mbeya City
52%

Winning margin

Ihefu wins by 2+
22%
Mbeya City wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ihefu 1+ goals
72%
Ihefu 2+ goals
37%
Ihefu 3+ goals
14%
Mbeya City 1+ goals
55%
Mbeya City 2+ goals
19%
Mbeya City 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ihefu (draw refunded)
67%
Mbeya City (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ihefu at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.85 · 47 matches

Mbeya City away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.40 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ihefu attack 1.17 + Mbeya City defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

Mbeya City attack 0.75 + Ihefu defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ihefu scores more
48%
level
29%
Mbeya City scores more
23%

Ihefu at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ihefu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Ihefu 2–0 Mbeya City

Ihefu beat Mbeya City 2-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on February 5, 2023.

The match was played at Highland Estate Stadium in Ubaruku.