Ihefu 1–1 JKT Tanzania: Result & Stats

Ihefu

FT

1 – 1

JKT Tanzania

12/6/2020

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 13Sokoine Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Ihefu43%

×Draw29%

JKT Tanzania27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IhefuExpected goals in this matchJKT Tanzania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.90

Ihefu

1.21

JKT Tanzania

0.90

Ihefu creates 34% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 82 away

1.17

creates per match

0.95

0.85

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Ihefu

1.17

JKT Tanzania

0.95

allows per match

Ihefu

0.85

JKT Tanzania

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ihefu+0.00on par

JKT Tanzania+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ihefu ↓

JKT Tanzania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ihefu or draw

73%

Ihefu or JKT Tanzania

71%

Draw or JKT Tanzania

57%

Winning margin

Ihefu wins by 2+

19%

JKT Tanzania wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ihefu 1+ goals

70%

Ihefu 2+ goals

34%

Ihefu 3+ goals

12%

JKT Tanzania 1+ goals

59%

JKT Tanzania 2+ goals

23%

JKT Tanzania 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ihefu (draw refunded)

61%

JKT Tanzania (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ihefu at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.85 · 47 matches

JKT Tanzania away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.26 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ihefu attack 1.17 + JKT Tanzania defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

JKT Tanzania attack 0.95 + Ihefu defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ihefu scores more

43%

level

29%

JKT Tanzania scores more

27%

Ihefu at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ihefu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff