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Ihefu vs Fountain Gate — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Ihefu
Ihefu
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Fountain Gate
Fountain Gate
4/18/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 23Liti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Ihefu48%
×Draw28%
Fountain Gate24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ihefu
1.36
Fountain Gate
0.86

Ihefu creates 58% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 62 away

creates per match

Ihefu
1.17
Fountain Gate
0.87

allows per match

Ihefu
0.85
Fountain Gate
1.55

finishing

Ihefu+0.00on par
Fountain Gate+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ihefu ↓

Fountain Gate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ihefu or draw
76%
Ihefu or Fountain Gate
72%
Draw or Fountain Gate
52%

Winning margin

Ihefu wins by 2+
23%
Fountain Gate wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ihefu 1+ goals
74%
Ihefu 2+ goals
39%
Ihefu 3+ goals
16%
Fountain Gate 1+ goals
58%
Fountain Gate 2+ goals
21%
Fountain Gate 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ihefu (draw refunded)
67%
Fountain Gate (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ihefu at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.85 · 47 matches

Fountain Gate away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.55 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ihefu attack 1.17 + Fountain Gate defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.36

Fountain Gate attack 0.87 + Ihefu defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ihefu scores more
48%
level
28%
Fountain Gate scores more
24%

Ihefu at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ihefu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Ihefu 1–1 Fountain Gate

Ihefu and Fountain Gate drew 1-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on April 18, 2024.

The match was played at Liti Stadium in Singida.