Ihefu 3–0 Coastal Union: Result & Stats

Ihefu

FT

3 – 0

Coastal Union

4/25/2021

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 25Highland Estate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Ihefu47%

×Draw30%

Coastal Union24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IhefuExpected goals in this matchCoastal Union

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.78

Ihefu

1.23

Coastal Union

0.78

Ihefu creates 58% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 111 away

1.17

creates per match

0.72

0.85

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Ihefu

1.17

Coastal Union

0.72

allows per match

Ihefu

0.85

Coastal Union

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ihefu+0.00on par

Coastal Union+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ihefu ↓

Coastal Union →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ihefu or draw

76%

Ihefu or Coastal Union

70%

Draw or Coastal Union

53%

Winning margin

Ihefu wins by 2+

21%

Coastal Union wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ihefu 1+ goals

71%

Ihefu 2+ goals

35%

Ihefu 3+ goals

13%

Coastal Union 1+ goals

54%

Coastal Union 2+ goals

18%

Coastal Union 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Ihefu (draw refunded)

67%

Coastal Union (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ihefu at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.85 · 47 matches

Coastal Union away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.28 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ihefu attack 1.17 + Coastal Union defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Coastal Union attack 0.72 + Ihefu defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ihefu scores more

47%

level

30%

Coastal Union scores more

24%

Ihefu at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ihefu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff