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Ihefu vs Azam — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Ihefu
Ihefu
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Azam
Azam
11/4/2023Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 9Highland Estate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Ihefu32%
×Draw30%
Azam37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ihefu
0.98
Azam
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 111 away

creates per match

Ihefu
1.17
Azam
1.29

allows per match

Ihefu
0.85
Azam
0.80

finishing

Ihefu+0.00on par
Azam+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ihefu ↓

Azam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ihefu or draw
63%
Ihefu or Azam
70%
Draw or Azam
68%

Winning margin

Ihefu wins by 2+
12%
Azam wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ihefu 1+ goals
62%
Ihefu 2+ goals
26%
Ihefu 3+ goals
8%
Azam 1+ goals
66%
Azam 2+ goals
29%
Azam 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ihefu (draw refunded)
47%
Azam (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ihefu at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.85 · 47 matches

Azam away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.80 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ihefu attack 1.17 + Azam defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.98

Azam attack 1.29 + Ihefu defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ihefu scores more
32%
level
30%
Azam scores more
37%

Azam at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Azam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ihefu 1 – 3 Azam

Azam beat Ihefu 3-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Highland Estate Stadium in Ubaruku.