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ÍH vs Ýmir — Cup 2019

ÍH
ÍH
AET
4 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Ýmir
Ýmir
4/12/2024CupCup · 2nd RoundSkessan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

ÍH66%
×Draw16%
Ýmir18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ÍH
3.18
Ýmir
1.66

ÍH creates 92% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

ÍH
2.11
Ýmir
0.75

allows per match

ÍH
2.56
Ýmir
4.25

finishing

ÍH+0.00on par
Ýmir+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ÍH ↓

Ýmir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

ÍH or draw
82%
ÍH or Ýmir
84%
Draw or Ýmir
34%

Winning margin

ÍH wins by 2+
47%
Ýmir wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

ÍH 1+ goals
96%
ÍH 2+ goals
82%
ÍH 3+ goals
60%
Ýmir 1+ goals
81%
Ýmir 2+ goals
49%
Ýmir 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

ÍH (draw refunded)
79%
Ýmir (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ÍH at home — creates 2.11, concedes 2.56 · 9 matches

Ýmir away — creates 0.75, concedes 4.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ÍH attack 2.11 + Ýmir defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 3.18

Ýmir attack 0.75 + ÍH defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

ÍH scores more
66%
level
16%
Ýmir scores more
18%

ÍH at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "ÍH will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: ÍH 4–4 Ýmir

ÍH and Ýmir drew 4-4 in Cup on April 12, 2024.

The match was played at Skessan in Hafnarfjörður.