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ÍH vs Augnablik — Cup 2019

ÍH
ÍH
FT
0 – 3
Augnablik
Augnablik
4/18/2019CupCup · 2nd RoundFífan (Kópavogur)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

ÍH17%
×Draw15%
Augnablik68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ÍH
1.72
Augnablik
3.37

Augnablik creates 96% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

ÍH
2.11
Augnablik
4.17

allows per match

ÍH
2.56
Augnablik
1.33

finishing

ÍH+0.00on par
Augnablik+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ÍH ↓

Augnablik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–34%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–37%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

ÍH or draw
32%
ÍH or Augnablik
85%
Draw or Augnablik
83%

Winning margin

ÍH wins by 2+
8%
Augnablik wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

ÍH 1+ goals
82%
ÍH 2+ goals
51%
ÍH 3+ goals
25%
Augnablik 1+ goals
96%
Augnablik 2+ goals
84%
Augnablik 3+ goals
63%

Draw no bet

ÍH (draw refunded)
20%
Augnablik (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ÍH at home — creates 2.11, concedes 2.56 · 9 matches

Augnablik away — creates 4.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ÍH attack 2.11 + Augnablik defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.72

Augnablik attack 4.17 + ÍH defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 3.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

ÍH scores more
17%
level
15%
Augnablik scores more
68%

Augnablik at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Augnablik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ÍH vs Augnablik

Augnablik beat ÍH 3-0 in Cup on April 18, 2019.

The match was played at Fífan (Kópavogur).