Iguatu 3–0 Parnahyba: Result & Stats | Serie D

Iguatu

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Parnahyba

Jaco 88'

Otacilio Marcos 24', 21'

Xexeu 90'

5/10/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 4Estadio Antonio Moreno de Mello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Iguatu63%

×Draw22%

Parnahyba15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IguatuExpected goals in this matchParnahyba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.80

Iguatu

1.88

Parnahyba

0.80

Iguatu creates 135% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 21 away

1.65

creates per match

0.86

0.74

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Iguatu

1.65

Parnahyba

0.86

allows per match

Iguatu

0.74

Parnahyba

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iguatu+0.00on par

Parnahyba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iguatu ↓

Parnahyba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Iguatu or draw

85%

Iguatu or Parnahyba

78%

Draw or Parnahyba

37%

Winning margin

Iguatu wins by 2+

37%

Parnahyba wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Iguatu 1+ goals

85%

Iguatu 2+ goals

56%

Iguatu 3+ goals

29%

Parnahyba 1+ goals

55%

Parnahyba 2+ goals

19%

Parnahyba 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Iguatu (draw refunded)

80%

Parnahyba (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iguatu at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.74 · 31 matches

Parnahyba away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iguatu attack 1.65 + Parnahyba defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.88

Parnahyba attack 0.86 + Iguatu defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Iguatu scores more

63%

level

22%

Parnahyba scores more

15%

Iguatu at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Iguatu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

Otacilio Marcos

24'

Otacilio Marcos

88'

Jaco

90+1'

Xexeu

90'

Xexeu

Iguatu

Parnahyba

⚽2

Manager: Washington Luiz

Iguatu substitutes

GeovaneTiaguinhoJacozinhoBacabalSouzaJeanEricCarlosJorgeRoniDanielSaulo

Manager: Betinho

Parnahyba substitutes

MirandaHenriqueMichaelEmersonVitãoJefersonRaiCardosoBaltazarRondallysSerginho

Match Recap: Iguatu vs Parnahyba

Iguatu beat Parnahyba 3-0 in Serie D on May 10, 2025.

Goals: Otacilio Marcos (21', 24'), Jaco (88'), Xexeu (90').

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Moreno de Mello in Iguatu.

Iguatu vs Parnahyba — Serie D 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Iguatu vs Parnahyba