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Igualada vs Pobla Mafumet — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Igualada
Igualada
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Pobla Mafumet
Pobla Mafumet
1/10/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 11Estadi Cem Les Comes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Igualada35%
×Draw28%
Pobla Mafumet38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Igualada
1.17
Pobla Mafumet
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 76 away

creates per match

Igualada
1.00
Pobla Mafumet
1.07

allows per match

Igualada
1.38
Pobla Mafumet
1.34

finishing

Igualada+0.00on par
Pobla Mafumet+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igualada ↓

Pobla Mafumet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Igualada or draw
62%
Igualada or Pobla Mafumet
72%
Draw or Pobla Mafumet
65%

Winning margin

Igualada wins by 2+
14%
Pobla Mafumet wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Igualada 1+ goals
69%
Igualada 2+ goals
33%
Igualada 3+ goals
11%
Pobla Mafumet 1+ goals
71%
Pobla Mafumet 2+ goals
35%
Pobla Mafumet 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Igualada (draw refunded)
48%
Pobla Mafumet (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igualada at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 29 matches

Pobla Mafumet away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.34 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igualada attack 1.00 + Pobla Mafumet defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.17

Pobla Mafumet attack 1.07 + Igualada defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Igualada scores more
35%
level
28%
Pobla Mafumet scores more
38%

Pobla Mafumet at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pobla Mafumet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Igualada 0–3 Pobla Mafumet

Pobla Mafumet beat Igualada 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on January 10, 2021.

The match was played at Estadi Cem Les Comes in Igualada.