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Igualada vs Cerdanyola del Vallès — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Igualada
Igualada
CANC
16:00
Cerdanyola del Vallès
Cerdanyola del Vallès
5/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 37Estadi Cem Les Comes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Igualada36%
×Draw27%
Cerdanyola del Vallès37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Igualada
1.22
Cerdanyola del Vallès
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 77 away

creates per match

Igualada
1.00
Cerdanyola del Vallès
1.08

allows per match

Igualada
1.38
Cerdanyola del Vallès
1.44

finishing

Igualada+0.00on par
Cerdanyola del Vallès+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igualada ↓

Cerdanyola del Vallès →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Igualada or draw
63%
Igualada or Cerdanyola del Vallès
73%
Draw or Cerdanyola del Vallès
64%

Winning margin

Igualada wins by 2+
15%
Cerdanyola del Vallès wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Igualada 1+ goals
70%
Igualada 2+ goals
34%
Igualada 3+ goals
12%
Cerdanyola del Vallès 1+ goals
71%
Cerdanyola del Vallès 2+ goals
35%
Cerdanyola del Vallès 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Igualada (draw refunded)
50%
Cerdanyola del Vallès (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igualada at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 29 matches

Cerdanyola del Vallès away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.44 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igualada attack 1.00 + Cerdanyola del Vallès defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Cerdanyola del Vallès attack 1.08 + Igualada defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Igualada scores more
36%
level
27%
Cerdanyola del Vallès scores more
37%

Cerdanyola del Vallès at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cerdanyola del Vallès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Igualada vs Cerdanyola del Vallès — Match Preview

Igualada face Cerdanyola del Vallès on May 9, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Igualada host Cerdanyola del Vallès at Estadi Cem Les Comes.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.